Publication TypeResearch BriefAbstractDespite many decades of research on probabilistic methods, population forecasts with predictive distributions remain relatively rare amongst official population forecasts. Partly as a result, little attention has been given to communicating forecast uncertainty to users, especially non-technical users. The aim of
this paper is to propose the adoption of perishable food labels such as ‘shelf life’, ‘use by’ date, and ‘best before’ date to describe forecast uncertainty in a simple manner. These terms can be applied to both fully probabilistic forecasts and those with empirical prediction intervals based on past error distributions.
Examples of their use are presented using population forecasts for the World, Australia, and the Northern Territory of Australia. It is suggested that these labels could prove helpful in describing uncertainty to nontechnical users of population forecasts.AuthorWilson, T.Publication CollectionNorthern Institute Research BriefsIssueRB03ContactTom Wilson 0423 342 745 Tom.Wilson@cdu.edu.auISSN2206-3862PublisherNorthern Institute, Charles Darwin UniversityPlace of PublicationDarwin
Wilson, T., Communicating population forecast uncertainty using perishable food terminology . Charles Darwin University, accessed 11/10/2024, https://digitalcollections.cdu.edu.au/nodes/view/4685
